A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
In the India-Pakistan situations, off-ramps have come either through foreign mediation (after months of kinetic warfare over Kargil, and a long stand-off with Op Parakram) or when a situation made it possible for both sides to claim a win, explains Shekhar Gupta.
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
'Entering India is exciting, but it's also challenging. You have to be prepared for long-term investment.'
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
The country's largest airline IndiGo on Friday saw its profit after tax slide 18.3 per cent to Rs 2,448.8 crore in the three months ended December 2024 due to foreign exchange loss even as revenue jumped on higher capacity and passenger traffic. The carrier, which had a fleet of 437 planes at the end of December, is planning to induct wet leased planes for long range flights and expects the number of grounded aircraft to come down to 40s by the start of next financial year from the current level of 60s.
The country's forex reserves dropped by a further $8.48 billion to $644.39 billion for the week ended December 20, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had dropped by $1.988 billion to a six-month low of $652.87 billion.
India's forex reserves dropped by $1.99 billion to $652.87 billion for the week ended December 13, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $3.235 billion to $654.857 billion.
Amid the rupee declining against the US dollar, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the Indian currency is relatively better placed than other global currencies against the greenback. Emerging market currencies have been falling against the dollar amid geopolitical tensions in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, concerns over growth, high global crude prices, sustained inflation and central banks worldwide adopting hawkish monetary policy approach. "We are relatively better placed. We are not a closed economy. We are part of the globalised world.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country's largest IT services provider, continue to remain under pressure, hitting a new eight-month low of Rs 3,624.90 intraday on Tuesday before closing at Rs 3,631, down 1.19 per cent. In the past two trading sessions, the stock price has declined 4 per cent on fears of a slowing US economy.
India's second-largest IT company Infosys on Thursday reported an 11.7 per cent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 7,033 crore for the March quarter. It had posted a profit (attributable to owners of the company) of Rs 7,969 crore in the year-ago period.
Many travellers are now opting for domestic destinations like Goa, Kerala, Rajasthan, Lakshadweep, Himachal Pradesh, and the North East.
Raising overseas debt has become prohibitively expensive due to the depreciating rupee.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) had a disappointing third quarter (Q3FY25) with flat volumes (after 7 per cent growth H1FY25). Price hikes will be required to maintain margins to offset the cost of palm oil inflation. However, some analysts see Q3 as an exception with strong volume growth expected to resume and it may be the fastest growing FMCG player in FY26.
Religious structures, Bengali traditions, and 'graffiti' drawn during the July uprising will be included on the currency notes.
The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
If Beijing succeeds in this multipronged effort to challenge the current dominant power, it will have not just economic but political and security consequences. There is no let-up in the South China Sea nor any de-escalation moves on the India-China border. This portends to ominous signalling from Beijing, observes China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
'Could the impending new crisis, vibe coding, similarly create not a disaster like what befell Indian handlooms during the Industrial Revolution but another opportunity like what the Y2K crisis created?' asks Ajit Balakrishnan.
The rupee has remained largely stable against the US greenback in the current calendar year (CY 2024), depreciating by just 0.59 per cent so far. However, it has considerably weakened against the euro and pound. The local currency has depreciated by 1.6 per cent against the euro and 5.6 per cent against the pound, as both currencies strengthened against the dollar during this period.
India's foreign exchange reserves fell for the fourth consecutive week after reaching an all-time high last month. In the week ending October 25, the forex reserves declined by $3.46 billion to $684.80 billion, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday. In the three preceding weeks, reserves dropped by $3.7 billion, $10.7 billion, and $2.16 billion, respectively, the data showed.
Most global as well as domestic brokerages are upbeat on India's largest IT services provider, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), despite its performance during the December quarter of FY25, when it missed Street estimates. On the bourses, the TCS share price rallied as much as 6.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 4,296.80 apiece, before settling 5.67 per cent higher at Rs 4,265.55.
Risks emerging from the US have left automotive investors worried. US President Donald Trump has announced 25 per cent tariffs on automotive imports, while global electric carmaker Tesla has taken its first steps towards entering India. While these developments are sentimentally negative for related stocks, it may be too early to conclude the eventual impact, analysts said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was a net seller of the US dollar in August, reversing its net buying position from July. During the current financial year up to August, the central bank had sold a net $1.11 billion. The RBI sold a net total of $6.49 billion worth of the foreign currency in August, according to the central bank's monthly bulletin.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
According to a new report published by Switzerland-based BIS, which is also referred as 'bank for central banks', the US Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible phasing out of easy money regime has resulted in 'abrupt and sizeable' equity market losses in both advanced and emerging markets.
IT services firm Wipro's revenue is likely to increase by about 4.5 per cent in FY26, mainly driven by favourable sectoral trends and recovery in discretionary customer spending, according to global rating agency Fitch.
'If you are invested in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, even if you are making losses right now, it is better to sell them now and sit on cash.'
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India has a lower overall exposure to the US relative to others in the APAC region, although certain sectors such as food, textiles and pharmaceutical products face risks. Moody's said most companies in its rated portfolio are domestic-focused with limited exposure to the US market.
Gold prices rallied Rs 910 to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 83,750 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday due to heavy buying from jewellers and retailers, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had settled at Rs 82,840 per 10 grams in the previous trading session.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
Whether it's navigating the labyrinthine Cu Chi Tunnels, boating on the Mekong, marveling at ancient Champa temples, or the Mekong Bay, Vietnam promises a journey like no other.
Many emerging economies have witnessed a flight of foreign portfolio capital and their currencies have slumped against the dollar.
Unless something changes, Mr Trump is a huge threat right now, which is perhaps not being recognised fully, cautions Debashis Basu.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
'From a retail investor's perspective, therefore, it is essential not to get swayed by the short-term correction in the equity market and macro noise, and stay the course with their long-term financial plans,' notes Ashwin Patni.
Despite the narrowing spread of yields between the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury bond, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are continuing to invest in the domestic debt market this year -- a trend backed by a stable currency and a less volatile bond market. FPIs have been net buyers in the debt market in 2023 so far, marking the first time since 2019. The yield spread between the 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 3.14 per cent on August 8 - the narrowest in over a decade.
